Recession signals tracker: yield curve spreads
- 10-yr minus 3-mo+0.78 ptTreasury, Oct 23, 2026
- 10-yr minus 2-yr+0.31 ptTreasury, Oct 23, 2026
- NBER recessions4since 1990, dated by NBER
A factual record of two Treasury yield curve spreads, the 10-year minus the 3-month and the 10-year minus the 2-year, from official U.S. Treasury data since 1990, shown with the recession dates set by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
Treasury data through Oct 23, 2026. Page built 2026-10-24 10:58 CDT.
Spreads are not forecasts. This page records what the spreads were and when NBER-dated recessions occurred. It does not estimate odds, predict a recession or give advice. Past patterns may not repeat.
Spreads since 1990, with NBER recessions shaded
The chart needs JavaScript; the same dates are in the tables below.
Latest readings
On Oct 23, 2026, the 10-year yield minus the 3-month yield was +0.78 percentage points, and the 10-year minus the 2-year was +0.31. Both are above zero. For the full curve on that day, see Treasury yield curve explained.
Past inversions
| Spread | Months with a negative monthly average | Months | Lowest daily close |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-yr minus 3-mo | Jul 2000 – Jan 2001 | 7 | -0.95 pt on Jan 2, 2001 |
| 10-yr minus 3-mo | Aug 2006 – May 2007 | 10 | -0.64 pt on Feb 27, 2007 |
| 10-yr minus 3-mo | May 2019 – Sep 2019 | 5 | -0.52 pt on Aug 28, 2019 |
| 10-yr minus 3-mo | Feb 2020 – Feb 2020 | 1 | -0.20 pt on Feb 25, 2020 |
| 10-yr minus 3-mo | Nov 2022 – Nov 2024 | 25 | -1.89 pt on Jun 1, 2023 |
| 10-yr minus 3-mo | Mar 2025 – Apr 2025 | 2 | -0.27 pt on Apr 4, 2025 |
| 10-yr minus 3-mo | Jun 2025 – Aug 2025 | 3 | -0.17 pt on Jun 30, 2025 |
| 10-yr minus 2-yr | Mar 1990 – Mar 1990 | 1 | -0.14 pt on Mar 20, 1990 |
| 10-yr minus 2-yr | Jun 1998 – Jun 1998 | 1 | -0.07 pt on Jun 25, 1998 |
| 10-yr minus 2-yr | Feb 2000 – Dec 2000 | 11 | -0.52 pt on Apr 7, 2000 |
| 10-yr minus 2-yr | Feb 2006 – Mar 2006 | 2 | -0.16 pt on Feb 23, 2006 |
| 10-yr minus 2-yr | Jun 2006 – Mar 2007 | 10 | -0.19 pt on Nov 15, 2006 |
| 10-yr minus 2-yr | May 2007 – May 2007 | 1 | -0.06 pt on May 9, 2007 |
| 10-yr minus 2-yr | Jul 2022 – Aug 2024 | 26 | -1.08 pt on Jul 3, 2023 |
Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026. Page convention: a month counts as inverted when the average of that month's daily spreads is below zero; touching months are grouped.
NBER-dated recessions since 1990
| NBER peak (month) | NBER trough (month) | Recession months on chart | Length |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1990 | Mar 1991 | Aug 1990 – Mar 1991 | 8 months |
| Mar 2001 | Nov 2001 | Apr 2001 – Nov 2001 | 8 months |
| Dec 2007 | Jun 2009 | Jan 2008 – Jun 2009 | 18 months |
| Feb 2020 | Apr 2020 | Mar 2020 – Apr 2020 | 2 months |
Source: NBER, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (business cycle data last updated Mar 14, 2023), retrieved Oct 24, 2026. NBER: recessions start in the month after a peak and end in the month of the trough.
Method
Daily spreads are computed from the U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (10-year minus 3-month, 10-year minus 2-year), then averaged by month for the chart. Days with a missing maturity are skipped. Recession months are from NBER's table; NBER explains its method on its business cycle dating page. Other sources, such as the Federal Reserve, use different spread measures and constant-maturity yields, so their dates can differ slightly.
Related: Treasury yield curve explained · Treasury auction results · T-bill calculator · I bond rate history.
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Frequently asked questions
What is a yield curve spread?
The difference between two Treasury yields on the same day. This page uses the 10-year par yield minus the 3-month par yield, and the 10-year minus the 2-year, from the U.S. Treasury.
What does an inverted spread mean on this page?
Only that the shorter yield was higher than the 10-year yield, so the spread was below zero. The page labels a month inverted when the average of its daily spreads is below zero.
Who dates U.S. recessions?
The National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee sets the peak and trough months. This page uses NBER's published table.
Does this page predict a recession?
No. Spreads are not forecasts. The page shows historical data and dates only, with no odds or predictions.
How often does it update?
The spread data is rebuilt from Treasury's daily par yield curve file with each site refresh. NBER dates change only when NBER announces a new turning point.